Archive for June, 2008

Basic Tenets of the Elliott Wave Principle

Posted on June 30th, 2008 by admin, under online forex trading.

Basic Tenets of
the Elliott Wave Principle

Since the Elliott Wave Principle was discovered by its founder, R.N. Elliott, in the 1930’s and 1940’s, it has since gained wide acceptance as a legitimate market analysis and forecasting tool.

The Wave Principle, as it is sometimes called, is a detailed description of how groups of people behave. It shows that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism, and back again, in a natural sequence, creating specific measurable patterns.

One of the most obvious places to see this phenomenon in action is in the financial markets, where changing investor psychology is recorded in the form of price movement. Using stock market data as his main research tool, R. N. Elliott isolated eleven patterns of movement, or “waves,” that recur in market price data.

He named, defined and illustrated those patterns. He then described how these patterns link together to form larger versions of those same patterns, how those in turn link to form identical patterns of the next
larger size, and so on.

The Wave Principle is a catalog of price patterns and an explanation of where they are likely to occur in the overall path of market development.

The markets often undergo periods of growth, alternating with phases of non-growth or decline, building fractally into similar patterns of increasing size.

The Elliott Wave Principle shows that the markets move in five wave patterns with the larger trend, then pull back in three - or five - wave corrections, before continuing with the larger trend.

Elliott Wave Principle figure 1

The market moves
up in five waves, then pulls back, before continuing with the larger trend.

Patterns moving with the larger trend are always five wave patterns, and are labeled with the numbers 1-2-3-4-5. Patterns moving against the larger trend are generally three-wave patterns, but can be either three -
or five - wave patterns, and are labelled with letters.

An impulsive wave is composed of five sub-waves and moves in the same direction as the trend of the next larger size.

A corrective wave is usually composed of three sub-waves and moves against the trend of the next larger size.

As the diagram shows, these basic patterns link to form five-wave and three-wave structures of increasingly larger size (larger “degree” in Elliott terminology).

Elliott Wave Principle figure 2

The first small sequence is an impulsive wave ending at the peak labeled 1.

This pattern signals that the movement of one larger degree is also upward. It also signals the start of a three-wave corrective sequence, labeled Wave 2. Waves 3, 4 and 5 complete a larger impulsive sequence, labeled Wave (1). Exactly as with Wave 1, the impulsive structure of Wave (1) tells us that the movement at the next larger degree is upward and signals the start of a three-wave corrective downtrend of the same degree as Wave (1).

This correction, Wave (2), is followed by Waves (3), (4) and (5) to complete an impulsive sequence of the next larger degree labelled Wave [1].

Once again, a three-wave correction of the same degree occurs, labeled Wave [2]. Note that at each “Wave one” peak, the implications are the same regardless of the size of the wave. Waves come in degrees, the smaller being the building blocks of the larger. Within a corrective wave, Waves A and C may be smaller-degree impulsive waves, consisting of five sub-waves.

This is because they move in the same direction as the next larger trend, i.e., Waves (2) and (4) in the illustration. Wave B, however, is always a corrective wave, consisting of three sub-waves, because it moves
against the larger downtrend.

Variations in corrective patterns involve repetitions of the three wave theme, creating more complex structures with names such as, “Zigzag,” “Flat,” “Triangle” and “Double Sideways.”

Each type of market pattern has a name and a structure that is specific under Elliott Wave rules and guidelines, yet variable enough in other aspects to allow for limited diversity within patterns of the same type.

For a particular pattern to be verified as an Elliott Wave, all its rules must be obeyed precisely. In contrast, its guidelines do not have to be strictly obeyed. However, when market movement can be interpreted in two or more ways according to the rules, the pattern obeying the most guidelines, or most important guidelines, is preferred. This pattern becomes known as the preferred count and has the highest probability of being correct.

It is important to understand that patterns of all degrees are operating in the market at the same time. Because they interact continually, they will never appear exactly as they did in the past.

The Elliott technician is concerned with probabilities. The Wave Principle does not show us the future with absolute certainty; it allows us to see what is likely to happen. As the market unfolds, waves can distort,
probabilities can change and target ranges will need to be altered. This is a normal day at the office for an Elliott technician.

Manual Forex Trading Strategy

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How to get out of a trade (part 1)

Posted on June 27th, 2008 by admin, under online forex trading.

In this series of articles we will discuss the problem of how to get out of a trade once in, i.e., to exit strate­gies, an issue that has
often been neglected in the trading literature.

THE IMPORTANCE OF THE EXIT

In many ways, a good exit is more critical and difficult to achieve than a good entry. The big difference is that while waiting for a good opportunity to enter a trade, there is no market risk. If one opportunity to enter is missed, another will always come along-and a good, active trading model should provide many such opportunities. When a trade is entered, however, exposure to market risk occurs simultaneously. Failing to exit at an appropriate moment can cost dearly and even lead to the dread­ed margin call! We actually know someone who made a quick, small fortune trad­ing, only to lose it all (and then some) because the exit strategy failed to include a good money management stop! To get out of a trade that has gone bad, it is not a good idea to simply wait for the next entry opportunity to come along. Similarly, ening on the side of safety and exiting at the drop of a hat can also drain a trading account, albeit less dramatically through slow attrition. The problem with frequent and hasty exits is that many small losses will occur due to the sacrifice of many potentially profitable trades, and trades that are profitable will be cut short before reaching their full profit potential. A good exit strategy must, above all, strictly con­trol losses, but it must not sacrifice too many potentially profitable trades in the process; i.e., it should allow profitable trades to fully mature.

How important is the exit strategy? If risk can be tightly controlled by quick­ly bailing from losing trades, and done in such a way that most winning trades are not killed or cut short, it is possible to turn a losing system into a profitable one! It has been said that if losses are cut short, profits will come. A solid exit strategy can, make a profitable system even more lucrative, while reducing equity volatili­ty and drawdown. Most importantly, during those inevitable bad periods, a good exit strategy that incorporates solid money management and capital preservation techniques can increase the probability that the trader will still be around for the next potentially profitable trade.

GOALS OF A GOOD EXIT STRATEGY

There are two goals that a good Forex exit strategy attempts to achieve. The first and most important goal is to strictly control losses. The exit strategy must dictate how and when to get out of a trade that has gone wrong so that a significant erosion of trading capital can be prevented. This goal is often referred to as money manage­ment and is frequently implemented using stop-loss orders (money management stops). The second goal of a good exit strategy is to ride a profitable trade to full maturity. The exit strategy should determine not only when to get out with a loss, but also when and where to get out with a profit. It is generally not desirable to exit a trade prematurely, taking only a small profit out of the market. If a trade is

going favourably, it should be ridden as long as possible and for as much profit as reasonably possible. This is especially important if the system does not allow mul­tiple re-entries into persistent trends. “The trend is your friend,” and if a strong trend to can be ridden to maturity, the substantial profits that will result can more than compensate for many small losses. The profit-taking exit is often implement­ed with trailing stops, profit targets, and time- or volatility-triggered market orders. A complete exit strategy makes coordinated use of a variety of exit types to achieve the goals of effective money management and profit taking.

KINDS OF EXITS EMPLOYED IN AN EXIT STRATEGY

There are a wide variety of exit types to choose from when developing Forex strategy of exit. In the standard exit strategy, only three kinds of exits were used in a sim­ple, constant manner. A fixed money management exit
was implemented using a stop order: If the market moved against the trade more than a specified amount the position would be stopped out with a limited loss. A profit target exit was implemented using a limit order: As soon as the market moved a specified amount in favour of the trade, the limit would be hit and an exit would occur with a known profit. The time-based exit was such that, regardless of whether the trade was prof­itable, if it lasted more than a specified number of bars or days, it was closed out with an
at-the-market order.

There are a number of other exit types not used in tbe standard exit strategy: trailing exits, critical threshold exits, volatility exits, and signal exits. A trailing exit, usually implemented with a stop order and, therefore, often called a trail­ing stop, may be employed when the market is moving in favour of the trade. This stop is moved up, or down, along with the market to lock in some of the paper profits in the event that the market changes direction. If the market turns against the trade, the trailing stop is hit and the trade is closed out with a proportion of the profit intact.
A critical threshold exit terminates the trade when the market approaches or crosses a theoretical barrier (e.g., a trendline, a support or resis­tance level, a Fibonacci retracement, or a Gann line), beyond which a change in the interpretation of current market action is required. Critical threshold exits may be implemented using stop or limit orders depending on whether the trade is long or short and whether current prices are above or below the barrier level. If market volatility or risk suddenly increases (e.g., as in the case of a “blow-off top), it may be wise to close out a position on a volatility exit. Finally, a signal exit is simply based on an expected reversal of market direction: If a long posi­tion is closed out because a system now gives a signal to go short, or because an indicator suggests a turning point is imminent, a signal exit has been taken. Many exits based on pattern recognition are signal exits.

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Standard exit strategy (SES)

Posted on June 26th, 2008 by admin, under online forex trading.

The standard exit strategy (SES) was used throughout the tests of entry methods. Basically, the SES employs a money management stop, a profit target limit, and a market order for exit after a specified amount of time. The examination of this strategy provides a baseline against which variations and more complex exit strategies may be judged.

WHAT IS THE STANDARD EXIT STRATEGY?

Although the standard exit strategy is basic and minimal, it does incorporate elements that are essential to any exit strategy: profit taking, risk control, and time exposure restraint. The profit-taking aspect of the SES is done through a profit target limit order that closes out a trade when it has become sufficiently profitable. The risk control aspect of the SES is accomplished using a simple money management stop that serves to close out a losing position with a manageable loss. The time exposure restraint is achieved with a market order, posted after a certain amount of time has elapsed. It closes out a languishing trade that has hit neither the money management stop nor the profit target.

CHARACTERISTICS OF THE STANDARD EXIT

The standard exit was intended to be simply a minimal exit for use when testing various entry strategies. As such it is not necessarily a very good exit. Unlike an optimal exit strategy, the standard exit is unable to hold onto sustained trends and ride them to the end. In addition, a profit can be developed and then lost. The reason is that the SES has no way of locking in any proportion of paper profit that may develop. A good exit strategy would, almost certainly, have some method of doing this. After having made a substantial paper profit, who would want to find it quickly vanish as the market reverses its course? The fixed time limit also contributes to the inability of the SES to hold onto long, sustained moves, but it was a desirable feature when testing entry strategies. Finally, the SES lacks any means of attempting to exit a languishing trade at the best possible price, as might be done, e.g., by using a shrinking profit target.

On the positive side, the SES does have the basics required of any exit strategy. Through its money management stop, the SES has a means of getting out of a bad trade with a limited loss. The limit order or profit target allows the SES to close a trade that turned substantially profitable. Using the time limit exit, the SES can exit a trade that simply does not move. These three features make the standard exit definitely better than a random exit or a simple exit after a fixed number of bars.

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Forex Trading Strategy

Posted on June 25th, 2008 by admin, under online forex trading.

Trade in the financial markets, as any serious business is built on the application of a set of Forex trading strategies. There are many strategies described in traders practice which become classical ones. However, each skilled trader has its own set of Forex trading strategies depending on the situation. A distinctive feature of an experienced trader is its own set of strategies and their regular use for achievement of success.

Forex trading strategy may depend on many factors. For example, the type of financial active, the size of a controlled deposit, time horizon, psychological aspects of the trader and his personal perception of risk. To be successful and receive regular profits from trade investor must create their own forex trading strategy, test it and, equally important, apply it regularly.

Forex trading strategy is a set of rules for the transactions. These rules are formulated by trader, regularly tested and applied. A set of Forex trading strategies will keep trader from excessive stress of uncertainty, of hasty decisions that might harm the deposit. Forex trading strategy should not only help the trader to go to the market at the right time and in the right place (this is called planning entry point), but also help him to close the position with maximal or planned profit.

Good forex trading strategy contains not only strict rules for trade. At the same time it must be flexible and adaptable to changing market conditions, which is a not fallen asleep scheme, but almost a living organism.

Overall, forex trading strategy should or may contain:
• a set of tools on which you will trade;
• method of analysis (technical or fundamental), by which

trader will be guided;
• Time trading interval: weekly, daily, intraday;
• rules to work only on the trend, or against it;
• use of figures of forex technical analysis;
• use a candle forex analysis, etc.

Can I use strangers Forex trading strategies? There are no rigid rules. Try it. However, an effective forex trading strategy of one player, may be totally unacceptable for another. To compare Forex trading strategies and systems it is necessary to establish criteria for their evaluation.

With the development of computer technology forex market analysis methods become more complicated. More and more complex indicators from the mathematical point of view are created and trader go further away from the real prices of conduct, and looks at it as if through a filter. Today there are almost no players who can read ticker tape and conduct the tenders without computer.

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Forex Trading Strategies

Posted on June 23rd, 2008 by admin, under online forex trading.

Forex Trading Strategies

Trading strategies that can be used as an independent system, and in combination with other trade policies, or as a basis for a strategy will be represented in this section. In any case - all represented - a purely subjective opinion and can not be interpreted as “philosophical stone” for Forex. :)

Bollinger Bands trading strategy(35,2)

The idea is that once prices will cross one of BB lines, tracking begins, and as soon as next candle, having closed, will not punch BB line, entrance in a direction opposite to breakdown.

Depending on the wish BB period (it is equal to 35 for us), temporal scale (4 hours for us) as well as confirmation from other indicators may vary. For example RSI.

Bollinger Bands strategy indicator

Trading strategy of game on levels

Here lies the idea that price, having once reflected from some point, will reflect from it again, and if it will pass, the acceleration will be enough to play in the direction of a puncture. The figure shows the level of yen, the arrow shows the direction of the game, the lines around them - limit of stop-loss, with whose breakdown position is automatically deployed.

As evidence of breakdown or rebound from levels it can be used: rebound - if the price had passed longer way to the top without correction, relative to other movements. Breakdown - the price often
“Nuzzles” in the level, gradually approaching the rebound low (see figure)

Strategy of game on levels indicator

Trading Strategy by Moving Average

It is possible to construct profitable system even on the most simple indicators. This example has a 2 movings with periods of 21 and 70. After breakdown of cost of one of movings standby begins. If prices deployed, not having reach the second (older) moving, the entrance is carried out while crossing (or slightly earlier), MA (21). Stop-loss placed below the recent peak. The system has flaws - one of them is the wrong signal at the conclusion of the trend. However, much advantage is that it always follows trend, contrary
to the wishes of the inexperienced player to play against him:)

Trading strategy by MACD

One of the most simple ways of game at presence of a trend. MACD 12/26 with an alarm line 7 is used on the graph. The entrance is carried out: Sale - at movement of MACD from a high hump downwards, at leaving
MACD below an alarm line. Closing of a pose occurs at MACD crossing “signal” upwards. At low peak achievement by MACD, at closing next turn and already a pose opens long will be closed at crossing by MACD an alarm line from top to down, and opens at crossing from below upwards. And again,
before formation of top by MACD… Stop is put at the price, hardly above recent finding fault (low). The system works well at a bright trend on 4-hour or day time, however the majority advises to refuse from MACD at flat. Nevertheless it is possible to play on MACD in range also. For this purpose 15-30 minutes
interval, and a quite other parameters of an alarm line are necessary. I suggest you to play with coefficients and to look, that will happen. The given tool have some hidden opportunities. Starting from a method of divergence and finishing by application of oscillators atop of MACD itself. All depends on wish of the trader to find the own weapon…

Stochastic trading strategy

Though there is an opinion that it is bad to define turning points, stochastic index does it quite well on big intervals. I do not recommend to use it on 5-60 minutes, or it is necessary to increase number of the periods (Stoch (35), Stoch (55), etc.) I have tried stochastic with the period 14 (by default). The system is such: an entrance is made after return crossing an alarm level aside this crossing. Levels are defined by the trader. Since a week-long trend is descending, the bottom rod is taken (8) and top (75) (it can by the way be hardly above, the entrance will be even earlier, but not above 78-80!) Stop becomes more likely fixed, by percent from the deposit (for example 1.5 from 100 K i.e. on 150 pips. At adjustment it is possible to play with alarm levels, the period of stochastic, and also to enter at crossing short moving (it usually constucts together) behind an alarm level.

Trading strategy game by Fibo-levels

One of the most common systems, based on fact that price, being adjusting, will go a distance equal to the movement factor multiplied by 0,236 0,382 0.5 and 0,618. The signal “prepare” occurs when, after a lengthy movements price had adjusted to not less than 0.2-0.3 part of this movement. fibo-levels are drawn, and orders for buy/sell about them establishes, with the foot above the next-fibo level. (if you have about 0,382,
stop is just above 0.5, when about 0.5, stop is above 0.618 …. nearly 0,618 Ц stop is above the peak, either immediately (0.65).

Fibo-levels strategy indicator

For example: After yen falling to 107.15 from 105.20 we draw fibo-levels (we also draw level after falling from 106.70 to 105.20). After the start of correction we put a warrant for the sale of about 0,382 correction from a large drop (level coincides almost exactly with a 50% drop as little correction). So Sell USDJPY 105.95, Stop above 0.5 from a large drop, to 106.30 … The level was the samples, and a warrant is selling about 0.5 from a large drop (note, the level again almost coincided with a fall of 0,618 smaller) So, Sell USDJPY 106.15, S / L 106.50 At this time, the level of 50% correction has stood (in this case, the convergence of 2 x levels in one place has had strong support bears.)

What we receive in the future:

Result indicator

The first red arrow points to our entrance points. Then almost 2-day consolidation followed  after which falling continued. The second arrow marks re-entry into the market after the correction, which ended about the previous low.

Depending on the test period and your preferences three strategies of work in the Forex are possible.

STRATEGY 1. Long-term maintenance of open positions (from a few days to several months). It is used by strategical investors and semi-professional speculators. It is most effective when trend starts and the least profitable at the side or sluggish trends. Mandatory insurance and relevant work expeditiously to the market’s biggest stock options are needed in doing so.

STRATEGY 2. Work on the medium-term trends lasting up to several weeks. This strategy is used mainly semi-professional speculators. This strategy may take advantage of all work strategies, can be quite long, and fairly short. Hedging using options is sometimes used in such transactions.

STRATEGY 3. Its essence is the opening position in the short duration from

several minutes up to several hours – intraday-trade. Implemented by professional players, who can “feel” the market, as well as small speculators, who because of insufficiency of financial resources are not available to use longer-term strategy. Advantage of this type of trading is that you do not expose yourself to risk of and unexpected price changes at a time when you were not in the Forex market. Disadvantage of this strategy is in large

indirect costs (commissions, spreads); great risk of adverse short-term fluctuations in prices. This type of trade throughout the day requires constant concentration, control and strain, which makes it exhausting one compared to the first strategy.

First, you recommended a second strategy of working with the gradual introduction of the benefits of the first and last strategy in sluggish side trends.

You may also need to keep in mind that

there must be the reason for each transaction - fundamental or technical one.

Good luck to you!

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System of 3 screens

Posted on June 19th, 2008 by admin, under online forex trading.

System of 3 screens

In the following article one of the Forex trading strategies which is based on so-called “system of 3 screens” is discussed.

Bull trend on the H4 graph

System of 3 screens

According to some estimates more than 40% of professionals in one way or another use the system. Indeed this is the simplest and most popular from publicly known systems, and we advise beginners to start from it.

TS was created by Alexander Elder in 1985 and since then it did not actually changed, this means that its is reliable and wide applicable, both in the stock market and in the Forex market.

The main problem of trading is that a the same indicator may give contradictory signals in different time scales. For example, it may indicate ascending trend on the daily graph and descending trend on the sentinel graph. In other words, the testimonies of indicators become contradictory, and trading signals depending on the time period of the graph.

And there is an only one solutionof this problem: to split making a decision on a several stages, analysing different time frameswith different instruments.

Without a doubt, the best way to come to such separation offers the method of three screens. You build 3 graphs and consistently analyze them.

A “middle” screen gets out the first - this is the time scale to which most corresponds the length of the opened position (usually, four-hour or the sentinel graph).

Next, long-term and short-term scales are selected, which differ on about 10 times from the average for middle one. These are usually daily (four hour) and sentinel (15 - or 5 - minute) graphics.

Analysis of the system “triple screen” begins with a long-term graph. The system belongs to trend ones, and the first task which faces here is defining of basic long-term trendin the direction of which it is needed to play, and its state - beginning, middle or end.

Accordingly, on this graph it is necessary to apply trend indicators, the main of which is MACD-histogram. Direction of trend is determined by ratio of two last strokes or points of histogram: an ascending histogram, when the last point is higher than the previous one, points to the upward trend, a descending histogram points on a necessity to play on a sale.

* It is necessary to take into account that a turn or slump of histogram means completion and turn of tendency.

* Turns upwards occurring below the zero line, give stronger signal to buy than turns above the line.

* Turns downward occurring above the zero line, give a stronger signal to sell,than turns below the zero line.

It is recommended to use few indicators of tendencies simultaneously to avoid false alarms. Base rule is to play only in the direction of tendency, exposed on the first long-term “screen”.

For example, in certain moment of time, we see bright bull trend on the H4 graph:

Bull trend on the H4 graph

A MACD histogram is in positive area and rises.

On the second middle screen it is necessary to identify movement against basic trend - “wave which runs against current”. It is like the yellow colour of traffic-light - it is necessary to begin prepares to the transaction, the turn of correction on trend will specify on possibility of buying or selling.

At a basic tendency to the increase on the first screen, for example, four-hour graph, hourly downs indicate the possibility of buying, at an a week’s downtrend the daily gettings up specify on potential possibility of sale at the end of the exposed correction. On the second screen it is necessary to use signalman, such as RSI, Stochastic etc.

* At the same time: a signal to buy is given if the first screen have ascending trend, and a signalman on the second screen, such as RSI, fell below the oversold line of 20% and begins to recover;

* a signal to sale is given, if on the first screen have descending trend, and RSI on the second screen rose higher than line of overbought 80% and begins to fall.

Let’s suppose. On the picture we see the ideal moment: stohastik unfolded after the correction and gave an order to buy.

Stohastik unfolded

The “third screen” is not the graph even but is the method of placing of orders on a purchase or sale depending on location of indicators on two previous graphs. Elder calls his “sliding order”.

* So: if a basic tendency goes upwards, and correction - downwards, sliding signals to a purchase catch the moment of overhead breaches of level of resistance. The method of sliding order works about buying works when, for example, week’s tendency goes upstairs for a long-term screen, and a signalmen falls on the second daily screen. Place an order about a purchase hardly higher then a maximum of previous day. At getting up of prices position on a purchase must be opened, as soon as a price will rise higher than comb of previous day to the proposed level. If prices continue to decline, it would not affect the order to purchase. Then push the order the next day at a teak above the last peak of quotations.

«Go on a daily to drop an buying order, while it will not appear affected, or until a one-week indicator, developing downward, will not cancel signal about a sale».

* if a basic tendency goes downward, and correction goes upwards, sliding signals to sale catch the moment of lower breaches of support level. At a week’s tendency of lowering wait while daylight recovery signal-man does not involve the method of sliding order about a sale. Place an order to sale a bit below of a minimum of closing date. As soon as a market will set down, you automatically will open position on lowering.

If a price rising continues, daily move the level of order about a sale on a few tics below than a minimum of the last candle. Purpose of method of sliding order about a sale is to catch the moment of daily lower breakthrough. An order comes into force when a daily tendency to the increase is torn off, and an a week’s downtrend again enters into the rights.

How protective orders should be placed in the triple screen system

Stop-order on fixing of loss at position on raising must be put a bit lower than a minimum of this or previous playing day - at the least of two.

Stop-order on fixing of loss at position on lowering must bet put a bit higher than a maximum of this or previous playing day - at the most from two. Further warrants can be moved on motion a market.

And. Elder. «How to play and win on the exchange».

Now let’s look at how correctly we predicted the market.

Prognosis of the market

As you can see, a prognosis appeared accurate. And taking such motion, it is possible to increase the deposit approximately in one and a half - twice.This is truly powerful system.

SLP Trading Group
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“Chaos” theory of Bill Williams

Posted on June 18th, 2008 by admin, under online forex trading.

“Chaos” theory of Bill Williams

“Chaos” theory of Bill Williams, is one of the most famous and controversial theories of modern trading. According to this theory, there is an enormous amount of diametrically opposing views.

Briefly, the theoretical base of “Chaos Theory” is following: despite the fact that each movement of price is a random and chaotic (microscopic parameters are casual), the overall change in the system has a predictable elements.

It can be confirmed by examples from life: the definition of half-life of nucleus (with the full uncertainty of time of decay of each nucleus individually), the notion of change of temperature (when change of speed of each particle is unknown), or changes in pressure (when the number of particles, which impact on the wall in unknown and uncertain).

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Forex Strategy of Larry Williams

Posted on June 17th, 2008 by admin, under online forex trading.

Forex Strategy of Larry Williams

Larry Williams is perhaps a symbol of short-term trading. The man who every year proves that the trade exchange can earn hundreds and thousands per annum.

Once he increased his capital from 10 000 to 1 170 000 dollars for one year!

I suggest you to familiarize with one of his strategies.

The Forex strategy is to buy at the price of 3-bar sliding average of minima, if according to technique of identifying the trend by turn points, trend is positive, and to close a position on 3-bar sliding average of maxima.

The signals on sale are exactly the opposite.

This means that you will take short positions on 3-bar sliding average of maxima, and close them to 3-bar sliding average of minima. It would be silly to do so without having a reason to take only signals for short sales.

A major reason for this could be fact that our system of turn on points of fluctuations had prompted us that the trend will go downwards. Then, and only then, you should sell on a maximum and close on a minimum.

Now we will try to put all this into some order. Figure 9.5 shows the imposing 3-bar sliding averages on the line of fluctuations. I noted the point where the trend changes its direction, so we switch from buying on minima to enter short positions on maxima, following the trend turns.

Entry points on 3-bar maxima and minima are shown also. The game goes as follows: trend unfolds upwards, therefore we buy on line of 3-bar minimum, we take profit on a 3-bar maximum and we wait for rollback to a 3-bar minimum.

If, however, the 3-bar minimum creates a turn of a trend for the sale, it is necessary toskip the deal. Short sales are made in exactly the opposite way: it is necessary to wait for a trend turning downward, and then sell at all 3-bar maximum and take profits on 3-bar minima.

Example of timetable is shown on picture below.

Example of timetable

Treasury bonds

Treasury bonds

Turns of every trend are marked on the image, so you can start a paper trade, seeking inputs and outputs for buying and selling. I propose to walk on this schedule, to get a sense of how to trade using the approach with a very short-term actions. Note this are hour bars, but the concept will work in other time scales: from 5 - minute up to 240 - minute bars.

Another way that Larry Williams offers is usage shock days and finding a market that marks time.

“Then I mark shock-day and acts accordingly, as soon as the breakthrough maximum or minimum shock of the day comes through. I recognize the fact that we are likely to see a breakthrough field of congestion of the prices (breakout of the congestion), if the shock-day immediately deploy. Such reminds
of market, which moved there where all the stops were, and covered all “babies ofbreakthrough” who arranged their warrants there.”

I noted examples of the figures shock of the day in trading ranges.

Trading ranges 1

Trading ranges 2

The breakthrough is a signal for traders to take up the case, and they do it. What kills them is an immediate turn that happens the next day. They can not not believe in such “good luck” and decide to stay despite the
turn: a few days later they leave their positions, adding energy movement, which we caught through the day of shock figure.

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4-hour MACD FOREX strategy

Posted on June 13th, 2008 by admin, under online forex trading.

4-hour MACD FOREX strategy

Time range: H4

Used indicators: MACD, EMA, SMA

Transaction Volume: –

Algorithm of tactics:

According to the author, this forex strategy yields an average +300 points of profit per month. This forex strategy was successfully tested on historical data and more than two years traded on a real bill. Signal for entrance are patterns of MACD indicator on 4-hour schedule. Target profit and stop-loss levels are determined by the levels of support and resistance, as well as moving averages or Fibonacci levels.

Used tools

Moving Averages:
365 Exponential Moving Average (365EMA)
200 Simple Moving Average (200SMA)
89 Simple Moving Average (89SMA)
21 Exponential Moving Average (21EMA)
8 Exponential Moving Average (8EMA)MACD:
Fast EMA 5
Slow EMA 13
MACD EMA 1Horizontal Lines:Three sets of horizontal lines above and below zero should be set directly in a window of MACD indicator.

Level +0.0015
Level +0.0030
Level +0.0045
Level -0.0015
Level -0.0030
Level -0.0045

This is how your schedule should look like

Patterns, that MACD creates are very profitable as a rule. However one should execute only those signals which have high probability of success. The strongest patterns are represented in figures below.

At A and D patterns, MACD moved beyond the level of 0.0045, as a rule, this suggests a possible correction or a change of trend. This are contrtrend patterns. Patterns B and C are trend ones, they allow to enter in the direction of the prevailing trend. The red circles indicates to signal of the entrance. One should enter at the opening of the next bar.

Head and shoulders

Double Peak and basis

When MACD decreases to a zero line and it is launched back aside a dominating trend, being kept hardly above a zero line is a signal of a proceeding tendency. Such movement should be taken, as usually it happens strong.

Round peaks and bases. A good signal for action. Just be careful when MACD is within the first zone of 0.0000 0.0015 above or below zero. Pattern should be considered a good signal if rounding formed at least 5 bars.

Examples of patterns MACD on real schedules

The graph below shows how the price like playing, revolves around the levels of support and resistance. The first entry was above average sliding profits and the first goal will be around fast moving average (8EMA and 21EMA). The second goal arrived around will be slow moving average (89SMA and 365EMA). The third goal arrived on the price level will be 1.2100, etc., etc., etc. This is an example of how to plan your trade in advance to take partial profit until the sale is completed.

A level that was last tested by price should be near the entry point so that a stop-loss could be set to this level.

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